Luka Dončić scored 52 in Utah, and Walker Kessler had his quietest night
Dončić scored the season's first 50-point game with eight threes and ten assists in a win over Utah, which moved him to second on our points board, while Kessler had two points in his return to Salt Lake City.
By James · 2 min read
Luka DončićWalker KesslerAustin ReavesPhotos: NBAFreeForty-eight hours before he scored 52 in Utah, Luka Dončić had turned the ball over eleven times against the Clippers and called his own game terrible. On Sunday he made eight threes, handed out ten assists and finished the Lakers' comeback from 18 down with back-to-back threes late in a 132-123 win, the season's first 50-point game, according to ESPN's recap. Austin Reaves added 29, and the two made 21 of their 24 free throws between them.
- Luka Dončić LAL2ndvs 3rd
- Walker Kessler LAL45thvs 49th
- Austin Reaves LAL23rdvs 31st
Two games that far apart are the best illustration yet of why our projections move a superstar's line only so far on any one night, in either direction. The same game also brought the quietest night so far from Walker Kessler, in his first game back in Salt Lake City, and it is worth looking at what that did to him too.
| Sunday | Projected points a game, before | After | Our points rank, before | After | Our 9-cat rank, after | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luka Dončić | 52 pts, 10 ast, 8-18 3PT | 57.5 | 60.0 | 3rd | 2nd | 4th |
| Austin Reaves | 29 pts, 4-5 3PT | 41.7 | 42.2 | 23rd | 23rd | 17th |
| Walker Kessler | 2 pts, 7 reb | 39.9 | 38.2 | 33rd | 45th | 31st |
Dončić's turnovers and his ceiling
Our projection had dipped to 57.5 fantasy points a game under ESPN's standard points scoring after 17 turnovers in his first two games, and Sunday took it back to 60.0, essentially where it started the season, and moved him to second on our points board behind Nikola Jokić. His line now projects 34.4 points, 8.7 assists, 4.3 threes and 4.4 turnovers. The turnovers are what keep him fourth rather than higher in 9-cat, and they are the reason a 52-point night is worth less to a categories manager than to a points manager, but in either format he is a player to start and forget about.
Kessler's return to Utah
Kessler had two points and seven rebounds in his first game back in Utah since the Lakers acquired him in the summer, according to ESPN. After two strong games our projection had climbed to 39.9 fantasy points a game, and one quiet night took it to 38.2 and moved him from 33rd to 45th on our points board, which shows how tightly the players in that range are bunched. He is still ahead of the analysts' consensus, at 49th, and 31st in 9-cat. One quiet game after two strong ones is not a reason to change course.
Reaves
Reaves has been the steadiest of the three, with 29 points on four-for-five from three on Sunday. We have him 23rd on points and 17th in 9-cat, ahead of the consensus on both.
What to do
Start Dončić and Reaves every night. Hold Kessler; the role that made him a top-35 player in our projections was still there on Sunday, and his next few games will say more than this one.
Every player in this story is on the fantasy basketball rankings and the 2026-27 projections, and the NBA depth charts show where each one stands in his team’s rotation tonight.
