How we call a breakout, and how to spot one yourself

Every preseason is full of breakout lists, and most of them are a guess about which young player will suddenly be better. The breakouts that actually pay off in fantasy are usually less romantic than that. A player who was already productive in limited minutes gets more of them, and his line grows to match.

That is the distinction our projections are built on. We project a player's minutes and his production per minute separately, so when we call a breakout we can tell you whether it rests on the role or on the rate.

Role breakouts

A role breakout is a player whose per-minute line is already good and whose minutes are about to rise. These are the safest calls in fantasy, because a coach's rotation is more stable than a shooting percentage. Dylan Harper and Kel'el Ware are both role breakouts this season: neither needs to play better for our projection to be right, only more.

Rate breakouts

A rate breakout is a player getting the same minutes and doing more with them. These do happen, especially in a player's second and third seasons, but they are much harder to call before a ball is bounced and much easier to mistake for a hot fortnight once the season starts. When we call one, we say so and explain why.

Where to watch it happen

Once the season starts, our projections move every morning with the box scores, and the player trends board reads each move into a word: more minutes, fewer minutes, a heater, a slump or a change in rate. A role change shows up there the night it happens. A hot streak shows up as a heater, which the model expects to cool.

The depth charts show where a new role came from, and the projections show the line itself. Between the three, you can usually see a breakout coming a week before your league does.

Our rule of thumb

Trust minutes before shooting: if a player's role grows and his rate holds, believe it. If his rate jumps and his role does not, give it a fortnight before you pay for it.