Jamal Murray is a first-round 9-cat pick, and our projections are alone in saying so

Jamal Murray is the player our 9-cat projections like more than anyone else does. Our board ranks him 10th, the analysts' 9-cat consensus has him 16th, and none of the ten analysts' 9-cat boards on our panel puts him higher than 11th. ESPN's own categories rankings had him 28th in early October, and ESPN drafters were taking him around 31st, which means a manager who agrees with our numbers can usually wait until the third round for a player we value as a late first.

The reason is the shape of his line rather than its size. We project 23.9 points, 6.7 assists and 3.1 threes over 72 games, with 88.8% at the free-throw line and 2.2 turnovers a night, and none of those numbers costs a manager a category. This piece sets out where that value comes from, which builds it suits and which it does not, and the two things that could make our number too high.

Every player in this story is on the fantasy basketball rankings and the 2026-27 projections, and the NBA depth charts show where each one stands in his team’s rotation tonight.