The players our projections moved most this week, and why

Our projections are rebuilt every morning, and in the week before opening night every change comes from the same three places: the injury list, the news written about each injury, and Sleeper's depth chart. We compared the projections as they stood on October 9 with the version committed on the morning of October 16 and ranked both on our points board under ESPN's default scoring, so the moves below are the projections alone with nothing else on the board changed. Preseason games are not part of that picture, because our projections do not read them at all.

The week's biggest risers were Kyle Kuzma and Brandon Ingram, and the biggest fallers were the players who had been holding extra minutes for an injured teammate. Some of the movement also came from a change on October 15 to the way our projections read injury notes, which shortened several absences at once, and we say below which moves came from that and which came from the news.

Kyle Kuzma, a depth chart move

Kuzma is the one big riser this week whose move has nothing to do with an injury. On October 12 Sleeper's depth chart moved him from second to first at his position in Milwaukee, and our projections read that order to set his minutes, which rose from 25.7 a game to 29.6. His projected line is now 14.6 points, 5.1 rebounds and 3.0 assists over 60 games, which lifts him from 190th to 144th on our points board, ahead of a consensus points rank of 187th. His 9-cat case is still weak at 197th, since his value is volume rather than efficiency or defense. The risk is that a depth chart is an editor's guess before the first game, and if the Bucks' opening rotations give him the 26 minutes he played last season, our number will fall back to where it was.

Brandon Ingram and Max Strus

Ingram's projected absence fell from 45 games to 30 on October 15, the day we changed how our projections read injury notes, in the same week that Hoops Rumors and RealGM both reported he has resumed on-court work. He now projects for 44 games and sits 100th on our points board, still well behind a consensus points rank of 53rd. Max Strus's absence was shortened from 14 missed games to seven on October 11, and he rose from 172nd to 164th. Both are covered in full, with every source, in when to draft Brandon Ingram, Jimmy Butler and the stars who will miss months.

Kristaps Porzingis, still out indefinitely

Porzingis is the move to treat with the most caution. The Warriors said in a statement on October 14 that he met with general manager Mike Dunleavy Jr. and the team's medical staff, that he remains out indefinitely with an undisclosed health issue, and that he will now be around his teammates, as TSN, carrying the Associated Press report, and NBA.com both reported. Our projections read "indefinitely" without a stated count as about 24 more games, down from 30 a week ago, which gives him 46 games and lifts him from 117th to 111th on points and from 109th to 92nd on our 9-cat board. That number is a placeholder, since no report gives a timeline, and it will move the moment the Warriors give one.

Nic Claxton, off the injury list

Claxton's rise from 102nd to 94th came from the injury list our projections read, which stopped listing him on October 12, so he now projects for 71 games. The Chicago Sun-Times and Bleacher Nation both reported on October 13 that his hamstring still had him out and could keep him out for a while, which makes 71 games the high end. Jalen Smith, who had been picking up a minute a game in his place, fell from 165th to 181st as a result. Claxton's hamstring and Jusuf Nurkić's toe are covered in the final preseason injury report.

De'Anthony Melton and Derrick Jones Jr., the minutes that went back

Melton fell further than anyone in the top 200, from 148th to 176th, and the reason sits with a teammate. Moses Moody tore his left patellar tendon in March and had surgery that week, as the Associated Press and NBA.com both reported, so our preseason projections had already priced him at 27 games. When our projections revised Moody's knee injury on October 15, his absence stopped counting as news to that preseason file, and the 2.5 minutes a game it had been passing to Melton went with it, leaving him at 24.1 minutes. Derrick Jones Jr. lost minutes the same way: with Ingram due back sooner, the lift our projections give Jones for Ingram's absence fell from 3.6 minutes a game to 2.8, and he slid from 177th to 188th.

What to do

Kuzma is now worth a late pick in deep points leagues, as long as you accept that his number rests on a depth chart rather than a game. Porzingis's rank is the least reliable on this list, so we would not draft him before the 120th pick in points leagues until Golden State gives a timeline. From October 20 our projections read box scores, as explained in how our projections move in season, and the current numbers are always on the projections page.

Every player in this story is on the fantasy basketball rankings and the 2026-27 projections, and the NBA depth charts show where each one stands in his team’s rotation tonight.