Eight draft-day coin flips that are not coin flips
Each of these pairs goes off the board at roughly the same pick, and in every case our projections put one player several rounds ahead of the other.
By Matt · 4 min read
Jamal MurrayDarius GarlandChet HolmgrenPhotos: NBAProMost draft decisions are not a choice between a good player and a bad one. They are a choice between two players who go off the board at about the same pick, where the managers around you have already decided the two are worth the same and the only question is which one you prefer. Those are the picks where a projection earns its keep, because the gap between two players at the same price is pure profit if you get it right.
- Jamal Murray DEN13thvs 16th
- Darius Garland LAC39thvs 50th
- Chet Holmgren OKC41stvs 40th
- Jaren Jackson Jr. UTA45thvs 47th
- Dejounte Murray NOP37thvs 48th
- Ivica Zubac IND48thvs 60th
We went through the draft prices at the end of September and pulled out eight pairs that drafters were taking within a few picks of each other, four for 9-cat leagues and four for points leagues under ESPN's default scoring. In every pair our projections, which rank players by what they give you over the whole season including the games they are expected to miss, put one player clearly ahead of the other, and in most of them the gap is more than three rounds of a twelve-team draft.
Every player in this story is on the fantasy basketball rankings and the 2026-27 projections, and the NBA depth charts show where each one stands in his team’s rotation tonight.
