Ranking the top four rookies for fantasy, and why Darryn Peterson is fourth

Rookies are the hardest players to price in any draft, because there is no NBA line to read and every projection is built on college numbers, draft position and a guess about the minutes a coach will give. That uncertainty is also why rookies are so often mispriced, since managers tend to draft the name they remember from the draft lottery rather than the role the player is walking into.

The top four picks of the 2026 draft are a good example. Our projections rank them in a different order from the one they were drafted in, and the player picked second ranks last of the four by a wide margin. The reasons are specific and mostly come down to shooting efficiency and turnovers, which is where rookies usually struggle most.