BreakoutsPro

The minutes risers and fallers that will move fantasy values most

Khaman Maluach, Jared McCain and Gui Santos gain nine minutes a night or more in our projections, while Kevin Porter Jr. and Nikola Vučević lose the most, and minutes move fantasy value faster than anything else.

By · 2 min read

If you only follow one number in the preseason, make it minutes. A player's production per minute changes slowly from one season to the next, because it reflects skills that take years to build, but his minutes can change overnight with a trade, an injury or a coaching decision. When they do, his whole fantasy line moves with them, which is why almost every breakout and almost every collapse in fantasy basketball starts as a change in minutes rather than a change in talent.

Ranks from our projections board and the analysts' consensus, updated nightly.

Our projections treat minutes and rate separately for exactly that reason, so we can compare each player's projected minutes with what he played last season and see who the model expects to gain or lose a role. We kept players who played at least 30 games last season and are projected for at least 50 this year, and ranked them by the change.

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Every player in this story is on the fantasy basketball rankings and the 2026-27 projections, and the NBA depth charts show where each one stands in his team’s rotation tonight.

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