Who goes second, Wembanyama, Dončić or Gilgeous-Alexander

Nikola Jokić is the first pick in both formats, and we have covered why in the only pick every analyst agrees on. The second pick is a real decision, because three players have a case for it and the right answer changes with the scoring. Victor Wembanyama, Luka Dončić and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are the second, third and fourth players on the analysts' points consensus, and second, fourth and third on the analysts' 9-cat consensus, and none of the three is projected to miss an unusual number of games.

We compared them on three measures: how many of our analysts put each one second, the per-game value of each projected line, and the value our board assigns once the games each man is projected to miss are priced in. The short answer is Wembanyama in 9-cat without much doubt, Wembanyama by a hair on ESPN points, and Dončić on Yahoo points. Gilgeous-Alexander is the safest of the three and the best third pick in categories, but on our numbers he is not the second pick in any format.

What the analysts say

On points, ten analyst boards split almost evenly between the two big names. James, Matt, Papi Roi, Leo and Robbin put Wembanyama second; Washington Specifics, Breakout, Matty G and Fantasy Hoops Edge put Dončić second; and sinfhoops alone has Gilgeous-Alexander there. Nobody has any of the three lower than seventh, so the disagreement is about order rather than tier. In 9-cat the panel is less divided. Three boards, James, NBA Fantasy Bible and Adam King, rank Wembanyama ahead of Jokić, five more have him second, and only Breakout and Fantasy Hoops Edge put Gilgeous-Alexander there, while nine of the ten have Dončić fourth.

ESPN points: Wembanyama, barely

We project Wembanyama for 26.9 points, 12.3 rebounds, 3.4 blocks and 2.1 threes over 66 games, and Dončić for 33.9 points, 8.8 assists, 8.2 rebounds and 4.2 threes over 67. Under ESPN's default scoring that is 61.5 fantasy points a game against 60.4, and once the board prices the games each will miss the two are separated by less than half a point a night, 54.5 against 54.1. ESPN's four points a block are worth 13.4 a game to Wembanyama by themselves, while Dončić gives back 8.0 a game on his 4.0 turnovers at two points each and about 3.7 more on missed shots and free throws. Gilgeous-Alexander's 30.9 points on 53% shooting are worth 54.7 a game, which is fifth on our board and below Giannis Antetokounmpo. The risk with Wembanyama is that his line rests heavily on blocks, so a week of foul trouble or a minutes limit hurts him more than it would a scorer.

Yahoo points: Dončić

Yahoo pays three points a block and charges one for a turnover and nothing for a miss, which moves the margin the other way. On our Yahoo board Dončić is worth 59.1 a game and 52.8 once games are priced, second behind Jokić, while Wembanyama drops to fourth at 58.3 a game, behind Giannis as well. Dončić's projected 67 games are the reason this is not a wider gap, since he played 64 last season, and that is the risk on his side of the pick.

9-cat: Wembanyama, clearly

The categories board is where the choice stops being close. Wembanyama's projected line is worth 11.6 a game on our 9-cat board, slightly more per game than Jokić's 11.4, and 8.8 once his 66 games are priced in, against 6.6 for Gilgeous-Alexander and 6.5 for Dončić. He is above a typical rostered player in seven categories, and by our arithmetic his blocks are the single strongest category anyone in the analysts' 9-cat top thirty owns, while his 84% free throws and 52% shooting on 18.5 attempts add to both percentages. Dončić is the opposite shape in categories: his points, threes and assists are elite, but his 4.0 turnovers, 47% shooting on 23.4 attempts and 78% free throws on 10 attempts cost him three categories, which is why Gilgeous-Alexander, at 53% from the field and 88% from the line with 2.2 turnovers, edges him for third. The only risk in taking Wembanyama second in 9-cat is availability, since 66 games is the fewest of the three.

What to do

From the second pick in a 9-cat league, take Wembanyama and do not look back. On ESPN points, take Wembanyama too, but treat Dončić as an equal choice if your roster plan favors guards, because the gap between them is smaller than a single good night. On Yahoo points take Dončić, and expect Giannis or Wembanyama at three. Gilgeous-Alexander is the pick at three in 9-cat and a fine fourth or fifth pick in points, where his 71 projected games make him the steadiest of the group. Draft Hacker and the projections rank all three under your own league's scoring, and our first round, pick by pick covers the rest of the round.

Every player in this story is on the fantasy basketball rankings and the 2026-27 projections, and the NBA depth charts show where each one stands in his team’s rotation tonight.