Nikola Jokić is the only player every analyst agrees on

Every analyst on our panel ranks Nikola Jokić first in points leagues. He is the only player in the top thirty with no disagreement at all, and the reason is not hard to find. We project 27.4 points, 13.2 rebounds and 10.4 assists over 72 games, which under ESPN's default scoring is 66.2 fantasy points a game, 4.7 clear of Victor Wembanyama in second and 11.5 clear of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in fifth.

After him the panel disagrees, mildly at first and then widely. The second through tenth picks sit within about eight places of each other on every board, but from eleventh down the arguments get bigger, and several of them come down to how a player's shooting is scored. This is where the consensus top thirty splits, and where our projections side with one camp or the other.

The top ten is settled

Wembanyama and Luka Dončić are second and third on the consensus and on our board, and every board has them between second and fourth. They get there in opposite ways: Dončić scores 33.9 a night and gives back four turnovers, which cost eight points under ESPN's scoring, while Wembanyama's 3.4 blocks and 1.1 steals are worth eighteen points a night by themselves. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Gilgeous-Alexander, Cade Cunningham, Jayson Tatum, Jalen Johnson, Anthony Edwards and Cooper Flagg fill the rest of the top ten in an order the boards barely dispute.

The widest arguments are about availability

Sabonis has the widest range in the top thirty, forty-two places from Matty G's 11th to Washington Specifics' 53rd, and Davis is close behind at thirty-five. Both played around twenty games last season, Sabonis 19 and Davis 20, and the boards that rank them low are pricing another short season. Our projection sides with the higher boards on both, at 23rd and 19th, because we project 71 and 61 games, and on a per-game basis they are among the most productive big men in the format. If you believe the games, they are value picks at the consensus price.

Amen Thompson and the four-point steal

Amen Thompson is a different kind of split. He played 79 games last season, so this is not about health, and the boards that rank him low are the ones that value scoring over defense. Under ESPN's scoring a steal and a block are worth four points each, and we project 1.5 steals and nearly a block a night with 8.1 rebounds, which is why we have him 20th, eight places ahead of the consensus.

Where the scoring costs players: Booker and Banchero

ESPN's default scoring adds a point for every make and takes one away for every miss, so a player shooting under 50% loses points on every shot he takes. That is the whole story behind our lower ranks for Devin Booker and Paolo Banchero. Booker projects at 25.3 points on 18.2 attempts at 46%, and Banchero at 23.6 points on 16.8 attempts at 47% with 3.2 turnovers, and on our board under ESPN's scoring they are 40th and 32nd against consensus ranks of 26th and 21st. Under Yahoo's scoring, which does not charge for misses, we have Banchero 14th, so in a Yahoo league the consensus is too low on him, not too high.

What to do

Take Jokić first if you have the first pick and do not overthink it. In the middle of the top thirty, the players to lean toward are the ones our projection ranks above the consensus, Thompson, Davis and Sabonis, provided you are comfortable with the games risk on the two big men. Be careful with Booker and Banchero on ESPN specifically, and check whether your own league charges for misses before you draft either of them. Draft Hacker and the projections rank every player under your league's own scoring.

Every player in this story is on the fantasy basketball rankings and the 2026-27 projections, and the NBA depth charts show where each one stands in his team’s rotation tonight.