Where our projections break from the consensus, and why
Our model ranks AJ Dybantsa, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Ayo Dosunmu and Dyson Daniels well above our analysts, and Jalen Green, Ja Morant and Michael Porter Jr. well below them.
By Matt · 2 min read
AJ DybantsaNickeil Alexander-WalkerAyo DosunmuPhotos: ESPN, NBAProThe site carries two kinds of ranking, and they are built in completely different ways. The consensus is the average of our analysts' boards, people who watch the games and form a view of each player. Our projections are a model: a projected line for every player, read against every injury report and depth chart change each night, scored under your league's settings, and valued over the whole season including the games each player is expected to miss. Most of the time the two agree closely, which is reassuring, because they get there by different routes.
- AJ Dybantsa WAS60thvs 95th
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker ATL55thvs 73rd
- Ayo Dosunmu MIN86thvs 116th
- Jalen Green PHX111thvs 85th
- Ja Morant POR88thvs 67th
- Michael Porter Jr. BKN76thvs 54th
The interesting players are the ones where they do not. A large gap means either the model has picked up something the analysts have not priced yet, usually a change in minutes, or the analysts know something the numbers cannot see. We picked out eight of the widest gaps on the points board under ESPN's scoring, four in each direction, and looked at what is behind each one.
Every player in this story is on the fantasy basketball rankings and the 2026-27 projections, and the NBA depth charts show where each one stands in his team’s rotation tonight.
