Zion Williamson's 63 games are already in his price, and his free throws decide the rest

Zion Williamson comes into the season after playing 62 games last year, his line almost unchanged at 21.0 points, 5.7 rebounds and 3.2 assists on 60% shooting in 29.7 minutes. Pelicans executive Joe Dumars described him as reporting to camp in "impeccable" condition, as Bleacher Report and RotoWire both reported, and CBS Sports reported that he arrived at camp in great shape. In the October 14 preseason win at Dallas, new coach Jamahl Mosley brought him off the bench, along with Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones, as part of a lineup experiment, which CBS Sports and Yahoo Sports both reported, and he scored 10 points in 18 minutes; nothing reported since says the change will carry into the regular season. Our projections give him 63 games and 21.8 points, 6.0 rebounds and 3.5 assists on 60.1% from the field, which makes him 50th on our points board under ESPN's default scoring against an analysts' points consensus of 56th.

The usual debate about Zion is whether to trust his games, but on our numbers that question moves him only a few places. What moves him a long way is the format. On our 9-cat board he is 106th, against a 9-cat consensus of 80th, and the reason is a line that adds nothing in threes and loses ground at the free-throw line on a large number of attempts. This piece separates the two effects and says where he belongs in each kind of league.

Every player in this story is on the fantasy basketball rankings and the 2026-27 projections, and the NBA depth charts show where each one stands in his team’s rotation tonight.